The NOOPS Theses
Scored against the market. Each verdict marks the call, not the tape — a bearish thesis over a falling basket reads TRACKING. All moves measured since each thesis was published, against the S&P 500. 6 tracking · 1 against · updated 21 July 2026.
Market-scored theses
TRACKING↑ call
Hardware's Moment
+73.6ppvs SPY · abs +86.8%
TRACKING↑ call
The Home Watershed
+64.4ppvs SPY · abs +77.5%
TRACKING↑ call
The Smiling Curve
+49.9ppvs SPY · abs +63.0%
WATCHwatch
The Agent Runtime Layer
+48.8ppvs SPY · abs +61.9%
TRACKING↑ call
Infrastructure Winners
+21.0ppvs SPY · abs +34.1%
TRACKING↓ call
Microsoft Has Lost the Plot
-7.5ppvs SPY · abs +5.6%
TRACKING↓ call
The SaaS Apocalypse
-4.5ppvs SPY · abs +8.7%
AGAINST↑ call
Agents as Primary Users
-3.8ppvs SPY · abs +9.3%
WATCHwatch
Technical Deflation
+3.2ppvs SPY · abs +16.4%
WATCHwatch
The Efficiency Paradigm
+1.3ppvs SPY · abs +14.4%
Qualitative theses — no market basket yet
QUALITATIVE
Data Is the New Metadata
no market basketv18
QUALITATIVE
Full-stack sovereignty: a frontier lab must own the stack down to the silicon
no market basketv7
QUALITATIVE
Good Enough Is Good Enough
no market basketv40
QUALITATIVE
Harness Engineering
no market basketv43
QUALITATIVE
Labour Displacement
no market basketv35
QUALITATIVE
Processes Are Harnesses
no market basketv26
QUALITATIVE
The Cultural Adoption Curve
no market basketv34
QUALITATIVE
The Kuhn Paradigm Shift
no market basketv38
QUALITATIVE
The Tiny Teams Thesis
no market basketv12