The Agent Runtime Layer
A new computational layer is crystallising between models and applications — the agent runtime. This is where orchestration, tool use, memory, and identity live. The question of who controls this layer is the central competitive battleground.
+48.8pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+61.9% · 4 instruments
S&P 500 same period+13.1%
Call directionWatch
No directional call — this basket is the thesis’s instrument panel.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDOGDatadog | 258.69 | -1.4% | +122.1% | +108.9pp | |
| MDBMongoDB | 344.67 | +2.0% | +35.2% | +22.0pp | |
| NETCloudflare | 272.42 | -1.9% | +28.6% | +15.5pp | |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 745.40 | -0.3% | +13.1% | — | |
| Basket: Instrument panel: where the runtime layer accrues if the thesis holds | |||||
Recent evidence 166 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v31, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 166 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
One thesis is currently moving against us — Agents as Primary Users, +9.3% since published. It stays on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.