Theses 08 / 19 QUALITATIVE published 05 Apr 2026 · updated 01 July 2026 · v35

Labour Displacement

AI is displacing labour, but the pattern is more complex than simple automation. The NBER data predicts ~1.75M fewer jobs across 4 countries in 3 years. Deloitte: 36% expect 10%+ of jobs automated within a year, 82% within 3 years. But the displacement overshoot pattern is emerging — companies are rehiring after regretted AI cuts.

No market basket

This thesis is qualitative — its evidence lives in the signals feed and the research system rather than a price series.

The research system PRO

  • Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
  • Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v35, with change notes
  • Evidence archive — all 151 signals filed to this thesis
  • The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
  • Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
Get NOOPS Pro
When we're wrong

One thesis is currently moving against us — Agents as Primary Users, +9.3% since published. It stays on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.