The SaaS Apocalypse
AI tooling is dismantling the value proposition of incumbent SaaS products. The pattern is not head-on competition but death by a thousand cuts — no single vibe-coded tool competes with Photoshop, but when millions of users need only 1% of its functionality, the market fragments irreparably.
+33.8pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+49.5% · 7 instruments
S&P 500 same period+15.7%
Call directionBearish ↓
A bearish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBEAdobe | 252.67 | +0.9% | +3.4% | -12.3pp | |
| FIGFigma | 23.29 | +1.0% | +8.7% | -7.0pp | |
| CRMSalesforce | 242.85 | -3.1% | +31.2% | +15.5pp | |
| IGViShares Software ETF | 105.78 | +0.8% | +31.5% | +15.7pp | |
| NOWServiceNow | 138.47 | -1.0% | +35.2% | +19.5pp | |
| WDAYWorkday | 199.28 | +6.1% | +53.6% | +37.9pp | |
| TEAMAtlassian | 192.53 | +1.2% | +182.8% | +167.0pp | |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 762.60 | +1.1% | +15.7% | — | |
| Basket: Seat-priced SaaS: sector ETF plus the canaries | |||||
Recent evidence 212 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v44, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 212 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +33.5% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +49.5% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.