The SaaS Apocalypse
AI tooling is dismantling the value proposition of incumbent SaaS products. The pattern is not head-on competition but death by a thousand cuts — no single vibe-coded tool competes with Photoshop, but when millions of users need only 1% of its functionality, the market fragments irreparably.
-4.5pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+8.7% · 7 instruments
S&P 500 same period+13.1%
Call directionBearish ↓
A bearish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRMSalesforce | 169.52 | +2.3% | -8.4% | -21.5pp | |
| ADBEAdobe | 234.74 | -1.1% | -3.9% | -17.1pp | |
| NOWServiceNow | 104.73 | -0.1% | +2.3% | -10.9pp | |
| WDAYWorkday | 144.78 | -0.4% | +11.6% | -1.5pp | |
| FIGFigma | 24.02 | +0.3% | +12.1% | -1.0pp | |
| IGViShares Software ETF | 93.63 | +1.0% | +16.4% | +3.2pp | |
| TEAMAtlassian | 88.86 | -2.0% | +30.5% | +17.4pp | |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 745.40 | -0.3% | +13.1% | — | |
| Basket: Seat-priced SaaS: sector ETF plus the canaries | |||||
Recent evidence 141 signals filed
20 JULY 2026
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v42, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 141 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
One thesis is currently moving against us — Agents as Primary Users, +9.3% since published. It stays on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.