Microsoft Has Lost the Plot
Microsoft's strategic position is deteriorating despite surface-level AI investment. They lack internal frontier models and depend on entity/openai, which is itself strategically unfocused — the Forbes "OpenAI Graveyard" documents deals and products that never materialised, while Anthropic's focus on a smaller number of things continues to pay off. Copilot has "Product Market Failure" (John's phrase). The entity/microsoft integration of Anthropic into Copilot Cowork confirms
-7.5pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+5.6% · 1 instrument
S&P 500 same period+13.1%
Call directionBearish ↓
A bearish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFTMicrosoft | 393.82 | -1.8% | +5.6% | -7.5pp | |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 745.40 | -0.3% | +13.1% | — | |
| Basket: Single-name thesis | |||||
Recent evidence 95 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v29, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 95 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
One thesis is currently moving against us — Agents as Primary Users, +9.3% since published. It stays on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.