The Home Watershed
AI capability is crossing the threshold where it runs meaningfully on consumer and home hardware — the concept/watershed where the transformation reaches everyone, not just developers and enterprises. Mark's watershed formulation captures the moment where capability meets accessibility.
+64.4pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+77.5% · 5 instruments
S&P 500 same period+13.1%
Call directionBullish ↑
A bullish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUMicron | 848.95 | -0.5% | +124.7% | +111.6pp | |
| ARMARM Holdings | 323.39 | -1.4% | +117.4% | +104.3pp | |
| INTCIntel | 95.04 | -2.0% | +87.2% | +74.0pp | |
| QCOMQualcomm | 171.78 | +0.7% | +36.6% | +23.5pp | |
| AAPLApple | 314.86 | -0.8% | +21.6% | +8.5pp | |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 745.40 | -0.3% | +13.1% | — | |
| Basket: Consumer silicon capable of frontier-adjacent inference | |||||
Recent evidence 141 signals filed
19 JULY 2026
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The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v37, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 141 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
One thesis is currently moving against us — Agents as Primary Users, +9.3% since published. It stays on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.