The Home Watershed
AI capability is crossing the threshold where it runs meaningfully on consumer and home hardware — the concept/watershed where the transformation reaches everyone, not just developers and enterprises. Mark's watershed formulation captures the moment where capability meets accessibility.
+70.5pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+86.3% · 5 instruments
S&P 500 same period+15.7%
Call directionBullish ↑
A bullish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUMicron | 977.50 | +5.5% | +158.8% | +143.0pp | |
| INTCIntel | 108.80 | +7.7% | +114.3% | +98.5pp | |
| ARMARM Holdings | 264.90 | +8.6% | +78.1% | +62.3pp | |
| QCOMQualcomm | 188.71 | +2.1% | +50.1% | +34.4pp | |
| AAPLApple | 337.00 | +1.4% | +30.2% | +14.5pp | |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 762.60 | +1.1% | +15.7% | — | |
| Basket: Consumer silicon capable of frontier-adjacent inference | |||||
Recent evidence 249 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v40, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 249 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +33.5% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +49.5% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.