Theses 07 / 20 TRACKING published 05 Apr 2026 · updated 06 Sept 2026 · v45

Infrastructure Winners

"Long infra. Short spoons." — the four-word NOOPS investment thesis. In a paradigm shift, infrastructure providers win. entity/nvidia is the kingmaker via strategic GPU allocation. entity/tsmc is sold out until 2028. entity/cloudflare got hammered in the cybersecurity sell-off but is actually an infrastructure winner — a buying opportunity.

+26.8pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+42.5% · 16 instruments
S&P 500 same period+15.7%
Call directionBullish ↑

A bullish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.

InstrumentPriceTodaySince publishedvs SPY90d
DELLDell Technologies 588.40 +4.5% +239.8% +224.0pp
MRVLMarvell 240.76 +4.8% +119.9% +104.1pp
SMCISuper Micro Computer 40.35 +9.5% +83.0% +67.3pp
ANETArista Networks 199.53 +1.0% +58.0% +42.3pp
NETCloudflare 333.94 +2.9% +57.7% +41.9pp
TSMTSMC 430.26 +3.0% +25.9% +10.2pp
ASMLASML 1629.67 +1.7% +25.0% +9.2pp
NVDANVIDIA 219.34 +2.5% +23.5% +7.7pp
LRCXLam Research 269.31 +0.0% +22.1% +6.3pp
AMATApplied Materials 417.40 +0.5% +18.4% +2.6pp
AVGOBroadcom 347.30 +2.3% +10.5% -5.3pp
NXT.AXNEXTDC 13.91 +6.6% +10.4% -5.3pp
GEVGE Vernova 924.93 -0.0% +3.1% -12.7pp
CEGConstellation Energy 262.80 +1.3% -4.5% -20.2pp
VSTVistra 143.56 +2.3% -5.3% -21.0pp
VRTVertiv 241.49 +0.9% -6.7% -22.4pp
SPYS&P 500 — benchmark 762.60 +1.1% +15.7%
Basket: Fabs, EUV, accelerators, networking, servers, cooling, DCs, and the power to run them

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When we're wrong

2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +33.5% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +49.5% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.